MS, Special Correspondent, Chennai, India
As the final stretch of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections unfolds, attention is fixated on the imminent release of exit polls, slated to be broadcasted from yesterday. Notably, political analysts Prashant Kishor and Yogendra Yadav have presented contrasting predictions for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition.
While Kishor anticipates a replication of the BJP’s 2019 performance, securing approximately 303 seats, Yadav posits that the saffron party will fall short of the majority mark of 272. The revelation of who between Kishor and Yadav comes closer to the actual outcome might unfold in today’s exit polls. However, it’s prudent to exercise caution. History demonstrates that exit polls can often be glaringly inaccurate, leaving room for unexpected surprises in the actual election results.
How are exit polls conducted? These polls serve as rough estimations designed to gauge the overall voter sentiment during an election. The results are derived from interviews conducted with voters immediately after they exit polling stations during the elections. Despite their purported accuracy, past instances have shown exit polls to be fallible, with significant disparities between the forecasted and actual outcomes.
Here are five instances post-2000s where exit polls proved to be wildly inaccurate:
- 2004 Lok Sabha polls: Amid the backdrop of then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s soaring popularity, the BJP anticipated victory, particularly following wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. However, exit polls forecasted a comfortable victory for the BJP and its allies (NDA), predicting between 240 to 275 seats. Yet, the results were starkly different, with the NDA securing only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies clinched 216 seats.
- Bihar Assembly elections 2020: Despite exit polls favoring the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagatbandhan, it was the BJP-JD(U) alliance that emerged victorious.
- Bihar Assembly elections 2015: Exit polls failed to foresee the sweeping victory of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JDU), and the Congress coalition, instead leaning towards a tight race and favoring the BJP. However, the Grand Alliance secured 178 out of 243 seats in the state.
- West Bengal Assembly elections 2021: Notable exit polls positioned the BJP as leading in the Assembly elections, yet the party only won 77 seats, trailing behind Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress’s tally of 213 seats out of 294.
- Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls 2017: Despite predictions of a hung assembly with the BJP as the largest party, the BJP clinched a landslide victory with 312 out of 403 seats in the state.
The Delhi Assembly elections 2015 and the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections also stand out as instances where exit polls deviated significantly from the actual election outcomes.
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